We should be optimistic about future regulation
The tax represents the formal and standardized development of e-cigarettes, which is a good thing for the long-term development of the e-cigarette industry. There will be no elimination of the concerns of the e-cigarette industry.
Cigarettes are so monopolized in China that the tobacco monopoly system is strictly enforced, but they are still sold by private enterprises and by hundreds of thousands of supermarkets, convenience stores and other channels all over the country.
Zhang Jinyuan, an e-cigarette brand, remains optimistic about future regulation."Like the food delivery and ride-hailing industries, many things will evolve before policies.But when the policy is implemented, we will cooperate with it.Whether it's licensing or tax hikes in the future, I believe good teams can find enough space."He said.
A preview of the future development paradigm of e-cigarette in China
Future development paradigm I: After the national standard of E-cigarette is released, no tax will be levied first to support the development of e-cigarette.There are practical reasons to do so.Because sales of e-cigarettes in the domestic market are too small.According to statistics, the industry's annual domestic sales were only 3.2 billion in 2016 and 4 billion in 2018.The sales volume of the whole industry in China is only so much.This sales, from the public companies, a grasp of a lot!That's a drop in the bucket compared to cigarette sales.Poses no threat to the sale of cigarettes.
Future development paradigm II: The formulation of national standards for E-cigarettes is to pave the way for taxation.After the "e-cigarette" national standard was released, the tax policy followed.But it strongly supports exports and does not restrict the sale of e-cigarettes in the domestic market.
Future development paradigm III: After the release of the national standard of E-cigarettes, the tax policy will follow. The domestic sales of e-cigarettes will not be restricted in the early stage, but will be restricted when the sales scale reaches a certain level (maybe 30 billion yuan, maybe 50 billion yuan, which is expected to be restricted from the tax rate).But strongly support export, for the country to earn foreign exchange, encourage to cooperate with tobacco companies to implement the "go out" strategy, and tobacco companies to cooperate in foreign countries to become bigger and stronger!
Which paradigm will the future follow?Honestly, I don't know!All these three future development paradigms have theoretical basis and practical significance.
What I want to say is that no matter which paradigm you choose, it will not be bad for e-cigarette companies!
What I want to say is that policy is not the biggest risk of the e-cigarette industry in China. The biggest risk of e-cigarette is that the industry changes quickly and will be eliminated once it fails to keep up with the development trend.